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News | 30 October 2018

Brexit and the Care Sector

There will be new opportunities and challenges, and at GoodOaks we are thinking about how we can thrive and add value in a post-Brexit care sector in the UK.

With or without a Brexit Deal, the UK’s leaving of the EU will have a big impact on the Care Sector in a number of ways.

Firstly, there is a big aspect of the care sector that Brexit will not change – Demand. There is a consensus that the demand for care at home will increase due to an aging population and more people living with complex conditions

In a paper published by LSE academics using population modelling, community care and social services expenditure is set to increase by 160% by 2035, compared to 2015 levels.

Brexit’s main effects will be felt on the supply side of the care market. The Independent recently reported that Brexit might leave the sector nearly 400,000 carers short by 2026, up from the current vacancy rate of 90,000.

This is also a result of the Government’s policy to focus on ‘highly skilled’ immigration, based on an annual salary of at least £30,000.

This will mean increased competition between care providers, homes and hospitals for recruitment and retention of quality staff. This will lead to higher wages being offered, and therefore prices charged.

Increasingly, capacity and quality will be where providers compete, rather than price.

However, this may be slightly mitigated by the current squeeze on retail and manufacturing sectors looking set to continue after Brexit. We expect some shift in employment away from these to the care sector.

In the longer term, technological advances in driverless, automated cars will revolutionise the sector, opening the care sector up to people previously unable to participate and reducing the burden of running cars for home carers.